Argentina Superliga Preview Aug 31-Sep 2

After three rounds of the Superliga, almost half of the games (18 of 38) have been draws.  Expect that trend to continue in round 4 and a couple of draws I like this week:

 

1 unit bet on Argentinos Jrs-Lanus to Draw @3.07

1 unit bet on Racing Club-Rosario Central to Draw @3.39

 

Argentinos Jrs-Lanus

After three games, Argentinos Jrs are yet to score a goal with two 0-0 draws and a 1-0 loss to Gimnasia.  Lanus also have two points after three games with two 2-2 draws and a 1-0 home defeat to Aldosivi, which led to their manager being fired.  Still will probably be similar results for a Lanus team that also drew their last six games to end last season.  The past two meetings between these teams have ended level and with Argentinos Jrs struggling so much in front of goal, this will probably be a grind of a match.  I think this ends 0-0

 

Racing Club-Rosario Central

An early season top of the table clash as unbeaten Rosario Central look for a fourth straight win against second place Racing, who have two wins and a draw so far.  An interesting match up here, between the top scoring club  going up against a team that is yet to concede a goal.   Racing have the home advantage here and a lot of firepower, but going up against a very tough defense, this match looks very even.  I think this game ends 1-1

 

 

And the rest of the Superliga action:

San Martin SJ-Huracan: San Martin PK @1.99

Huracan are yet to get a win, but that is not as poor as it sounds when you realize they faced River Plate and Boca Juniors in their first two home games of the season.  Disappointing loss in their one away game though to Aldosivi and another road game here against a team that is yet to lose.  San Martin have won their only home match so far and picked up draws in the two on the road.   With this match at home, I think San Martin get a 1-0 win

Defensa y Justicia-Belgrano: Lean Belgrano +.5 @2.02

Similar start for both teams with two draws and one win and all of the head to head meetings in recent years have been very close.  Last season, these two played a 1-1 draw and I think this will once again be a very close match.  I am going to predict another 1-1 result

Banfield-Patronato: Lean Banfield ML @1.88

Not the most impressive start to the season for Patronato, with just one point from the first three games and losses in the past two.  Banfield have four points from two matches and have won their only home game so far.  With this game also at home, I think Banfield pick up a second win and I like them to get a 1-0 victory here

Talleres Cordoba-Godoy Cruz: Lean Godoy Cruz +.5 @1.83

An interesting match up and a difficult game to call here.  Talleres were very good at home last season, but have lost two of three to start this season, including their only home match so far.  Godoy Cruz had a great campaign last season, finishing second and ended with a long unbeaten streak.  That unbeaten streak has continued through three games, though they haven’t been all that impressive in those games.  Still think that Godoy Cruz get something from this match and stay unbeaten and I will predict a 1-1 finish in this match

San Lorenzo-River Plate: Lean River ML @2.11

After a very sluggish start to the season, River exploded on Wednesday for a 3-0 win over Racing in the Copa Libertadores and maybe that win will get their season going.  They have a talented team and ended last season on a great run and they can be a dangerous team.  San Lorenzo have not impressed much this season and though they have picked up three draws so far, I think they lose here.  I like River Plate to win 2-0

Estudiantes LP-Independiente: Lean Estudiantes PK @1.95

A bit of a tough spot for both teams after intense midweek games in Copa Lib.  Both had to travel to Brazil, so they might be a bit tired for this match, but Estudiantes won the meeting between these clubs last season and also won their first home game in the Superliga this season, so I give them the edge here.  I think Estudiantes win here 1-0

Aldosivi-Tigre: Lean Aldosivi PK @1.95

Aldosivi have had a nice start to the season with two wins from their first three games.  Tigre have also had a decent start to the season picking up draws in the first three matches.  The big difference between these teams though is that Aldosivi is not allowing many goals, while Tigre have conceded two in each game so far.  With their strong defense and home advantage I think Aldosivi get a 2-1 win in this match

Colon Santa Fe-Union Santa Fe: Lean Union +.25 @1.75

A big rivalry match here, but surprisingly, the home side has only won once in the last seven meetings.  A lot of very close games and a bunch of draws in this match up, but the away team has won two of the last five.  Colon are yet to win this season, so Union may be able to sneak away with a win.  I will predict a 1-0 win for Union

Boca Juniors-Velez Sarsfield: Lean Velez +1 @1.95

A big win midweek to advance to the Copa Lib quarterfinals for Boca, but a long trip to Paraguay and not much time to get ready for this game.  And Velez have started the season well, picking up four points from their first three matches.  I think Velez get a 1-1 draw with a tired Boca team here

Newells Old Boys-Atletico Tucuman: Lean Newells ML @2.20

Atletico Tucuman are another team coming off of a long trip in Copa Lib.  They are off a high after advancing over Atletico Nacional in Colombia, but I think there may be a let down here against Newells.   When playing in Rosario, Newells are a tough team to beat and I think they get a 1-0 win in this match

San Martin Tucuman-Gimnasia LP: Lean Draw @3.00

Not a great start to the season for either of these teams, with Gimnasia losing two straight after winning their opener, while San Martin have just one point from their first two games.  This should be a close one with the newly promoted San Martin at home but with Gimnasia having more Superliga experience evening things out.  I think this will be a 1-1 draw

Argentina Superliga Preview August 24-27

Round 3 in the Superliga kicks off on Friday, but this is a tough week for many teams in the league, with Copa Libertadores matches coming up starting next tuesday.  Trying to stay away from any match involving Copa Lib teams, as I feel they probably won’t be fully focused this round.  But one match I do like this week in Argentina

 

1 unit bet on Rosario Central -.75 @1.76

 

Rosario Central-San Martin Tucuman: 

Rosario Central have started the season with two straight 1-0 wins and I think they make it three in a row against a newly promoted team.   San Martin did well in their opener, getting a 1-1 draw with Union Santa Fe, but going on the road will be much tougher.    I think Rosario get a 3-0 win here

 

 

 

And the rest of Round 3 in the Superliga:

Patronato-Racing Club: Lean Patronato +.25 @1.85

Racing are in second place in the table with four points from their first two games, but they are in a tough spot here with their Copa Lib match up with River Plate coming up next week.   And Patronato are a tough team to beat at home and they have kept a clean sheet in 7 of 9 as hosts.  With Racing likely looking ahead here, I think Patronato gets a 1 -0 win

Belgrano-Estudiantes LP: Lean Estudiantes +.25 @2.07

Estudiantes do have a big Copa Lib game coming up this week and normally I do not like to back teams with Cup games approaching, but Estudiantes have started the season very well and Belgrano have not scored a goal yet.  I think Estudiantes get a 1-0 win in this match

Independiente-Defensa y Justicia: Lean Defensa y Justicia +.25 @1.88

Independiente just played in Copa Lib midweek getting a 0-0 in the first leg against Santos, but will travel to Brazil for the second leg this Tuesday, so they will likely rest much of their squad here.  Defensa y Justicia also played in midweek in Copa Sud, also getting a 0-0 draw against Banfield, but with the second leg of that tie a few weeks away, they should be able to better focus on this game.  I think Defensa y Justicia will come away with a 1-0 win here.

Atletico Tucuman-Colon Santa Fe: Lean Colon PK @2.04

Tucuman also play in Copa Lib this week and they have a very long trip to Colombia coming up, so they probably will be rotating a good bit of the team here.  Colon have started the Superliga unbeaten in the first two and have also advanced in Copa Sud.  They are a strong team and I think they get a 2-0 win here

Gimnasia LP-Talleres Cordoba: Lean Gimnasia PK @1.92

A disappointing start to the season for Talleres with two losses so far, while Gimnasia won their home opener 1-0 over Argentinos Juniors.   Talleres had a very good campaign last season, but it was mostly due to their strong home record and they were nowhere near as good away from Cordoba.  Gimnasia have started the season well and at home here, I think they get a 1-0 victory

Tigre-San Martin SJ: Lean San Martin +.5 @2.14

A little surprised that Tigre is such a big favorite here, as they haven’t even won a game yet.  They do have two 2-2 draws and they came against fairly strong opposition, but still don’t think the odd should be this low for them, especially since San Martin are unbeaten and have two more points so far.  I think San Martin at least gets a draw here and I think this match ends 1-1

River Plate-Argentinos Jrs: Lean Argentinos Jrs +1 @1.91

River haven’t really gotten going this season with two 0-0 draws so far in the Superliga and more importantly, they have their huge Copa Lib game coming up with Racing this week.  This is a tough spot for them and Argentinos Jrs haven’t started the season badly.  With River likely looking ahead to Copa Lib, I think Argentinos Jrs at least get a draw and I think we may have another 0-0 draw in this one

Velez Sarsfield-Banfield: Lean Draw @3.28

Velez are unbeaten in seven straight home Superliga games but four of those were draws.  Banfield is also a team that gets lots of draws, as four of their final seven Superliga games last season ended level.  They also drew 0-0 this past week in Copa Sud against Defensa y Justicia.  This should be a close one and I think this match ends 1-1

Lanus-Aldosivi: Lean Aldosivi +.5 @2.08

Lanus haven’t won a Superliga game in a long time and they also lost this week in Copa Argentina to second division Atletico Rafaela.   Aldosivi got a nice win last week against Huracan and played Union Santa Fe very tough despite giving up a late goal to lose 1-0.  Lanus are the kings of playing draws with their last eight in the Superliga ending level.  I think this one probably is a draw as well and I am going to predict a 1-1 scoreline

Huracan-Boca Juniors: Lean Huracan +.5 @2.01

Huracan are very tough to beat at home and Boca have a to travel to Paraguay for a Copa Lib match a couple days after this game.   Huracan only lost one home game last season and have already gotten a 0-0 draw with River Plate this season.  I think this match will be a 0-0 draw as well

Godoy Cruz-Newells Old Boys: Lean Godoy Cruz ML @2.05

Godoy Cruz has won 13 of 14 home Superliga games and will like their chances of getting another win here as Newell’s have lost eight of their last 10 away games in the league.  A bit of a slow start for Godoy Cruz though, as they needed a late goal to narrowly win 1-0 in their home opener and then could only get a 0-0 draw away to Argentinos Jrs in the last round.  I do think they get the win here though and will predict a 2-0 win for the hosts

Union de Santa Fe-San Lorenzo: Lean Draw @3.36

Union were great at home last season and they did not lose a game as hosts.  But they have had a sluggish start to the Superliga, needing a late goal to win the opener against Aldosivi and then again needing a late goal to draw against newly promoted San Martin Tucuman last weekend.  San Lorenzo has not had the best start either, but they have at least been getting draws.  I think they get another one on Monday and I think this game ends 1-1

Argentina Superliga Preview August 17-20

One bet in Argentina as the Superliga’s second round gets underway on Friday:

 

1 unit bet on Godoy Cruz +.25 @1.82

 

 

Argentinos Jrs-Godoy Cruz

Godoy Cruz finished last season in second place and only lost once in the final 16 games of the year.  That unbeaten streak included a 2-1 win away to Argentinos Jrs.  They also started this season on a positive last week with a 1-0 win over Estudiantes, while Argentinos Jrs lost to Gimnasia.  I think Godoy Cruz will be too strong here and I like them to win 2-1

 

 

And the rest of the action in Argentina:

Talleres Cordoba-Rosario Central: Lean Rosario Central +.25 @1.98

Rosario got a 1-0 win in their opener against Banfield, while Talleres lost 1-0 to Boca Juniors.  Rosario also beat Talleres last season 1-0.  I think Rosario can once again get a result on Friday and I like them to win here 1-0

Newells Old Boys-Independiente: Lean Newells PK @2.11

Tough week for Independiente as they traveled to Japan to face Cerezo Osaka in the Suruga Bank Championship and now must play a Copa Lib match against Santos this coming Tuesday.  Don’t think they’ll be at full strength in this one and while Newells did not look good in their opener, I expect them to play better at home and I think they win 2-0

Defensa y Justicia-Atletico Tucuman: Lean Atletico Tucuman +.5 @2.02

Defensa y Justicia have a Copa Sudamericana match coming up with Banfield this Wednesday and may not be fully focused for this league game.  And Atletico Tucuman come into this match in good form with a draw against Racing in their opener and also had a big Copa Lib win in the match before that.  I think Atletico Tucuman can at least get a point from this game and I like this match to end 1-1

Banfield-Gimnasia La Plata: Lean Gimnasia +.25 @1.95

Banfield will be facing Defensa y Justicia in Copa Sud this week and they too may not be fully focused on this game.  Gimnasia got a victory in their opener and I think they can make it two in a row here.  I like Gimnasia to get a 1-0 win in this match

River Plate-Belgrano: Lean River Plate -1 @1.79

A poor start to the season for River, but they were very strong at home last season and won their final four games by at least two goals.  Belgrano were one of the lower scoring teams in the Superliga and I don’t think they can do much to trouble River.  I like the home team to get a 2-0 win in this match

San Martin SJ-Patronato: Lean Draw @3.12

Both of these teams had 0-0 draws in their openers and they finished last season with nearly identical records and equal on points with 33.  These two look very even and I think this match will end in a draw.  I am going to predict a 1-1 finish here

Colon Santa Fe-Tigre: Lean Tigre +.25 @1.98

Colon just played Sao Paulo in the Copa Sud on Thursday in a match that went to penalties.  A very short turnaround for this game and I am not sure they will be at their best for this one.  Tigre got a draw in their opener against San Lorenzo and I think they may be able to get a win in this match.  I like Tigre to win 1-0

Aldosivi-Huracan: Lean Huracan +.25 @1.81

Huracan had a very strong campaign last season, finishing in fourth and were particularly good in away games.   They got a nice result in their opener with a 0-0 draw against River Plate and I think they can beat newly promoted Aldosivi.  I like Huracan to win 1-0 in this match

San Lorenzo-Lanus: Lean Lanus +.5 @1.78

San Lorenzo just played on Wednesday in Copa Sud and it is a short turnaround for this match after traveling back from Chile.  San Lorenzo also haven’t performed very well so far this season, losing both legs of that Copa Sud tie with Deportes Temuco and they could only get a draw against Tigre in their Superliga opener.  I think Lanus will at least get a draw here and I think this game will end 0-0

Racing Club-Velez Sarsfield: Lean Over 2.25 @2.04

Racing had the most games go over 2.5 goals in the Superliga last season and they scored the second most goals in the league with only Boca Juniors getting more.  They started this season with a high scoring game as well, drawing 2-2 with Atletico Tucuman.  Velez Sarsfield also scored twice in their opener, so I think we should see some goals in this one and I like Racing to win 2-1

Estudiantes LP-Boca Juniors: Lean Estudiantes +.5 @1.79

Boca just played in Barcelona on Wednesday in the Joan Gamper Trophy friendly match and may be tired after so much travel for this game with Estudiantes.  Boca haven’t performed all that well against Estudiantes in recent matches either and I think this will be a close game.  I am going to predict a 1-1 draw in this game

San Martin Tucuman-Union Santa Fe: Lean San Martin PK @2.06

San Martin are yet to start the Superliga after their first fixture was postponed, but they won four of their last five home games last season and have already picked up a win in the Copa Argentina to start this campaign.  At home in their first match since being promoted, I expect them to do well and I think they get a 1-0 win in this match.

Argentina Superliga Preview August 10-13

Round One of the Superliga kicks off in Argentina on Friday and there are three games I like this weekend:

 

1 unit bet on Union de Santa Fe -.75 @2.00

1 unit bet on Tigre-San Lorenzo to Draw @3.23

1 unit bet on Atletico Tucuman-Racing Club to Draw @3.02

 

Union de Santa Fe-Aldosivi 

Union were unbeaten at home last season, the only Superliga team to not lose a match at home.  Aldosivi were just promoted to the Superliga, but the last time they were in the top flight, they won just two of their away games.  This is a very tough way to start the season for Aldosivi and I think Union gets a 2-0 victory in this match.

 

Tigre-San Lorenzo

Tigre ended last season drawing four of their last six home games and were grinding out a lot of 0-0 and 1-1 games.  San Lorenzo drew three of their last six away matches and also had a 0-0 game in their Copa Sud tie in Brazil against Atletico MG.  Head to head, three of six have been draws and all have been close matches.  I think this game ends 1-1

 

Atletico Tucuman-Racing Club

Tucuman were tied with Tigre for most draws in the Superliga last season and they had draws in more than half of their home games.   They face a tough match in the opener here with a very strong Racing team, but I think Tucuman will grind out another draw in this one.  I think this match ends 1-1

 

And the rest of the round one of the Superliga:

Velez Sarsfield-Newells Old Boys: Lean Velez ML @2.14

Velez only finished in 14th last season but they did end the campaign in very strong form, winning four of the last five.  Newells finished in 22nd place and lost 10 of 13 away games in the Superliga.  I like Velez to win 2-1

Gimnasia LP-Argentinos Jrs: Lean Argentinos Jr PK @2.07

Argentinos Jrs beat Gimnasia 3-1 last season and finished in 12th place.  Gimnasia struggled for much of the season and ended the season near the bottom of the table.  Argentinos Jrs started this season by advancing in the Cup and I think they may be able to get a win here as well.  I like Argentinos Jrs to win 1-0

Patronato-Colon Santa Fe: Under 2 @1.89

Patronato played four 0-0 draws in their home matches last season and had three more that ended 1-0.  They kept clean sheets in more than half of their home games last season and I think this game has a good chance to end 0-0 as well.

Belgrano-San Martin SJ: Lean San Martin SJ +.5 @2.09

Belgrano beat San Martin last season 1-0, but San Martin got at least a point in each of the five meetings prior to that.  Belgrano don’t score a lot of goals, so this should be a low scoring match and San Martin are likely to get something from this game.  I think this match ends 1-1

Boca Juniors-Talleres Cordoba: Lean Boca Juniors -.75 @1.87

An exciting match to start the season here, between the Champions and fifth place finishers last term.  Despite a very good season, Talleres were not quite as strong in away matches and lost at Boca in the last meeting.  Boca got a nice win in Copa Libertadores midweek and I think they continue their good form in this match.  I like Boca to win 2-0

Godoy Cruz-Estudiantes LP: Lean Godoy Cruz ML @2.18

Godoy Cruz finished second in the Superliga last season and won 12 of 13 at home.  Estudiantes are in a big let down spot after a huge victory over Gremio in Copa Libertadores and it is a short turnaround and a hostile environment for this match.  I like Godoy Cruz to win 2-0

Lanus-Defensa y Justicia: Lean Draw @3.07

Lanus drew each of their last six matches last season, including three straight 0-0 matches to end the campaign.  Defensa y Justicia played a ton of close games in away matches last season and their last nine were either a draw or decided by a single goal.  This should be a close game and I think it could end 0-0

Rosario Central-Banfield: Lean Banfield +.5 @1.93

Rosario ended last season in poor form losing four of five and Banfield did fairly well in away matches.  The last four meetings head to head have either been draws or Banfield wins and the away team here has already had a good start to the season, advancing in the Copa Sudamericana over Boston River of Uruguay.  I like Banfield to win here 2-1

Huracan-River Plate: Lean Huracan +.5 @1.80

After an intense Copa Libertadores match with Racing on Thursday, I feel this could be a tough spot for River and I think there is a good chance of a letdown here.  Huracan had a great season in the last campaign, finishing fourth and they only lost once at home.  I think Huracan wins this match 1-0