Copa Libertadores Preview August 28-30

The second legs of the Copa Libertadores Round of 16 take place this week and one match I like from these:

 

1 unit bet on Racing Club +.75 @1.92

 

River Plate-Racing Club

It’s been a strange start to the season for River who have had four straight 0-0 draws to open the campaign, three in the Superliga and also the first leg of this tie.  Racing, on the other hand, have two wins and a draw since that first match with River and they are now second in the Superliga and the top scoring team.  River have only beaten Racing once in the past five meetings and with the combination of River’s sluggish start and Racing hot in recent games, I think Racing is the team to back in this match.  I like Racing to win 1-0

 

 

And the rest of the action in Copa Lib:

Santos-Independiente: Lean Over 2 @1.95

Despite a 0-0 draw in the first leg, Independiente got awarded a 3-0 victory after Santos used an ineligible player in the first match.  Now with a huge deficit, Sanos have no choice but to attack and with the total set so low, I think the over is a good bet.  I think Santos win 2-1

Gremio-Estudiantes LP: Lean Gremio -1 @1.85

Gremio are unbeaten at home in the Brasileirao and in Copa Libertadores this season and despite being down 2-1 in this tie, they still have a good chance to advance.  Estudiantes have already lost this season when traveling to Brazil, falling to Santos in the Group Stage and they will struggle to score on a team that have kept clean sheets in all three of their home Copa Lib games this season.  I think Gremio win 2-0

Atletico Nacional-Atletico Tucuman:  Lean Tucuman +1.25 @1.79

Atletico Nacional had a very disappointing result in the first leg, losing 2-0 in Argentina and though they are very good playing at home, this is a big deficit to come back from.  Tucuman did well in their away games in the Group Stage, winning against The Strongest in Bolivia and drawing with Libertad in Paraguay.  This trip to Colombia will be even more difficult than those two games, but Tucuman are playing well and are unbeaten so far in the Superliga.  I think they keep this close and this match ends 1-1

Cruzeiro-Flamengo: Lean Flamengo +.25 @1.94

Flamengo lost to Cruzeiro 2-0 in the first match between the two and have also lost a few other matches recently.  After a great start to their season, Flamengo have fallen off a bit with a brutal schedule and crazy fixture congestion from competing in three separate competitions.   But Cruzeiro have been dealing with the same issue and have only lost once in the last eight games.  It is going to be very difficult for Flamengo to to overturn this deficit, though I think they are the team to back in this match, as there is just no incentive for Cruzeiro to attack in this game.  Even if they go down a goal, they can still sit back with the aggregate lead.  I think Flamengo win 1-0, but Cruzeiro still advance

Corinthians-Colo Colo: Lean Colo Colo +.75 @1.98

Colo Colo not only won the first leg of this tie in Chile, but they really dominated the match and I think will be disappointed that they do not have a bigger lead to take to Brazil.  It is only a a goal deficit for Corinthians and they should be confident of getting a win at home, but they have not been in great form in recent weeks, with four losses in their last six games.   All of the losses were in away games, but I still think this is worrying and I think Colo Colo can get out of this match with at least a draw.  I think this match ends 1-1

Libertad Asuncion-Boca Juniors: Lean Boca PK @1.75

Boca got a 2-0 win in the first leg and though it will be a tough trip going to Paraguay, I think Boca will get the win here.  Libertad will need to attack to overturn this deficit and that will be very dangerous against this Boca team, who I think will be able to counter effectively.  I Like Boca to get another 2-0 win

Palmeiras-Cerro Porteno: Lean Palmeiras -1.25 @2.02

Palmeiras are rolling at the moment, unbeaten in the last eight and have advanced to the semifinals of the Copa do Brasil and are in very good position to advance from this tie after a 2-0 win in Paraguay.  Palmeiras have won five straight at home and kept clean sheets in the last four of those.  I think Palmeiras win here 3-0

Copa Libertadores Preview August 7-9

The Copa Libertadores knock out round gets underway with some big match ups right away.  I like three matches this week:

 

1 unit bet on Gremio PK @1.75

1 unit bet on Corinthians +.25 @1.76

1 unit bet on Atl Tucuman-Atl Nacional to Draw @3.23

 

Estudiantes de La Plata-Gremio

Estudiantes are at home for this first leg, but are probably in a tougher position than Gremio, as they are just starting the season while the Brazilians are in mid season form.  Gremio are also playing very well at the moment and have the best defense in the Brazilian league.   Gremio are the defending Champions of this competition and have lost just once in the last 15 Copa Lib matches.   Estudiantes, meanwhile, did not have a very good campaign in the Argentine Superliga last season, finishing in 16th place.  They also lost both matches against another Brazilian club, Santos, in the Group Stage of this competition.  Gremio are a very tough team to beat and look to be the better team in this match.  I think the Brazilians will win 2-0.

Colo Colo-Corinthians

Colo Colo were very lucky just to make it to this round and barely qualified from one of the easier groups.   The Chilean club only won one of their home matches in the group stage, beating Bolivar while losing to Delfin and Atletico Nacional.   Corinthians are unbeaten in their last five away matches in Copa Lib play, including a nice win over Independiente in Argentina in the group stage.   The Brazilians are very strong defensively and a tough team to beat and I think they will get a 1-0 win in this match

Atletico Tucuman-Atletico Nacional

Atletico Nacional play a lot of low scoring games and get a bunch of draws, especially when they play on the road.  Half of their away matches in the Colombian Apertura ended in draws.  Tucuman are also a team that play a ton of draws with 12 of their 27 matches in the Argentina Superliga ending level.  I think Atletico Nacional will be content to keep this one very close and get the tie back to Colombia.  I think this match ends 1-1

 

And the rest of the Copa Lib matches this week:

Racing Club-River Plate: Lean River Plate PK @2.12

A very exciting match between two of the big five clubs in Buenos Aires, but unfortunately a game that takes place at a bad time with both coming off of preseason.  River Plate may have a bit of an advantage as they have had a couple competitive matches in the Copa Argentina, but it is hard to tell much with them playing lower level clubs.  River ended last season in incredible form and I give them the slight edge in this match, though it could go either way.  I think River Plate wins this match 2-1

Boca Juniors-Libertad Asuncion: Lean Boca Juniors -1.25 @2.09

Boca are the big favorites in this match, though they did not have the best Group Stage and were at one point very close to missing out on the knock out rounds.  Libertad, on the other hand, did very well in their group, finishing first and losing just once, though they did not face the toughest competition.  Boca did win their final home group match 5-0 and back at home for this one, they will be tough to beat.  I like Boca Juniors to win here 3-0

Flamengo-Cruzeiro: Lean Flamengo ML @1.96

A very exciting all Brazilian match up here with two sides that did very well in the Group Stage, only losing once between the two of them.  Flamengo are much higher up the table in the Brazilian League, though Cruzeiro topped a difficult group in Copa Lib with Racing Club and Vasco da Gama.  Cruzeiro have been difficult to beat all season and have one of the best defenses in Brazil, though with Flamengo playing at home in the first leg, I think they will edge it out and get a 1-0 victory.

Cerro Perteno-Palmeiras: Lean Palmeiras PK @1.87

Cerro Porteno did very well in their Group, dropping only one game away to Gremio.   They were unbeaten at home, defeating Defensor Sporting  and Monagas and drawing with Gremio, though they face a Palmeiras team that won all three of their away matches in their Group, including a 2-0 win at Boca Juniors.  This is a very strong Palmerias team and I think they will be able to beat Cerro Porteno team, even with the match in Paraguay.  I like Palmeiras to win 2-0.