Sunday October 7

Six bets for Sunday, two in Italy, and one each in England, Spain, France, and Portugal:

 

5 unit bet on Fiorentina +.75 @1.83

1 unit bet on Man City +.25 @1.79

1 unit bet on Sampdoria +1 @1.85

1 unit bet on Marseille-Caen Over 2.75 @1.81

1 unit bet on Valencia-Barcelona Under 3 @1.98

1 unit bet on Benfica-Porto to Draw @3.24

 

Lazio-Fiorentina

Lazio have had a rough week, falling in the Rome Derby and then dropping their Europa League match on Thursday away to Eintracht Frankfurt.  And the schedule does not get any easier with a very tough match against Fiorentina and though this match is in Rome, I like the visitors in this one.  Three games in a week is tough for any team and when it is against three very strong opponents, it is very tiring and I do no think any team would be at full strength with such little rest and a good bit of travel between games.  And Fiorentina would be a difficult opponent at any time and with them well rested, I think they will be ready to get a result in this match.  Fiorentina are above Lazio in the Serie A table, they have scored more goals and have conceded fewer.  I like Fiorentina to come away with a 2-1 win in this match

Liverpool-Manchester City

Even though this match is at Anfield, I feel that Man City is in a better position for this match, as Liverpool have had a brutal run of fixtures in the past two weeks.  The Reds had to face Chelsea twice, once in the League Cup and once at Stamford Bridge in PL play.  They then had to make a long trip to Italy to face Napoli in Champions League play on Wednesday.  That is a lot of difficult games in a very short period of time.  In the same period, Man City cruised to victories over Oxford Utd in the Cup and Brighton in the PL and though they had to work hard to get a win over Hoffenheim in the CL, they have had an extra day of rest to recover.   Man City come into this game in better form and a bit better rested and that makes them the slight favorite in my opinion.  I think City wins this match 2-1

Atalanta-Sampdoria

I am surprised to see Atalanta as such a big favorite for this match, as they have not had very strong results this season and sit just above the relegation zone with just one win so far.  Sampdoria were a very poor away team last season, but they have taken four points from their first three road games this campaign, and more importantly, have allowed just one goal.  I like Sampdoria in this one and think they get a 2-1 win

Valencia-Barcelona

Barca had a huge win midweek in the Champions League and scored four times in London, but their La Liga form has been a different story.  Winless in their last three and they have scored just once in the past two games.  And Valencia is a very difficult team to beat and very tough to score on.  Only one of nine competitive matches this season have gone over 3 goals and head to head, just one of the past five meetings in Valencia have gone over 3.  With Valencia at home, I think they will give Barca a very tough match and I think this game ends 1-1

Marseille-Caen

Marseille have played 10 matches this season, eight in Ligue 1 and two more in the Europa League, and all 10 have had at least three goals.   I have bet the over in just about every game they have played this season and am going to continue to do so.  They are not only scoring a ton, but are giving up a bunch as well and I think that trend continues against Caen.  I think this match ends 2-2

Benfica-Porto

Both meetings two seasons ago were draws, as was the first meeting last season.  The second match last season was also nearly a draw, until a late Porto goal gave them the win.  This match is always close and very intense and this meeting will likely be the same.  I think this match ends 1-1

Friday October 5

Three bets for Friday:

1 unit bet on Werder Bremen-Wolfsburg Over 2.5 @1.81

1 unit bet on Brighton-West Ham to Draw @3.21

1 unit bet on Feirense-Belenenses to Draw @3.15

 

Werder Bremen-Wolfsburg

Five of six Bundesliga matches have gone over 2.5 goals for Wolfsburg, while four of six have gone over that number for Werder Bremen.  And when you look at the head to head meetings between these teams, just about every recent match has gone over 2.5 goals.  Nine of the last ten have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in eight of ten.  This season, Bremen have lost just once and have scored in every match, with at least two in four of six.  But they are yet to keep a clean sheet. Wolfsburg have had a similar season with just one loss and having scored at least twice in four of six games.  But they too have conceded quite a few, with just one clean sheet on the season.  This is a game where I think both teams can score and I like this to go over 2.5 goals.  I think Werder Bemen wins this match 3-1

 

Brighton-West Ham

Two teams that are right next to each other in the table and have almost identical records and goal difference.  West Ham is in 13th and climbing the table, unbeaten in three and they are looking strong after a very poor start.  Brighton have fallen just below the Hammers to 14th after consecutive losses, though the defeats came to very strong opponents.  Brighton are a strong team at home and this gives them a bit of an advantage, but with West Ham in good form, this match should be very even and I think there is a good chance of a draw.  I think this match ends 1-1

 

Feirense-Belenenses

Two teams that have played very low scoring games so far this season.  Both have scored just four times in six league games, but neither gives up many goals either.  Feirense are yet to lose at home, with a win and two draws, but Belenenses are a tough team to beat and have only fallen to Porto and Braga.  This should be a close one and I think this has a good chance to be a 0-0 or 1-1 game

Sunday September 23

Bets for Sunday:

1 unit bet on West Ham-Chelsea Over 2.75 @1.76

1 unit bet on Arsenal-Everton Over 3.25 @1.84

1 unit bet on Rennes-PSG Over 3 @1.91

1 unit bet on Lyon-Marseille Over 3 @1.97

1 unit bet on Eintracht-RB Leipzig Over 2.75 @1.76

1 unit bet on LA Galaxy-Seattle Sounders Over 3 @1.77

1 unit bet on Villarreal-Valencia Under 2.5 @1.93

1 unit bet on Real Betis-Athletic Bilbao Under 2.5 @1.88

1 unit bet on Benfica -2 @1.79

1 unit bet on Tondela-Moreirense to Draw @3.39

1 unit bet on Cruzeiro-Santos to Draw @3.02

1 unit bet on Atletico PR -.75 @1.83

Saturday September 22

Having problems with internet, so unable to do any write ups, but bets for Saturday are:

 

1 unit bet on Fulham-Watford Over 2.75 @1.99

1 unit bet on Real Madrid-Espanyol Under 3.5 @1.88

1 unit bet on Wolfsburg-Freiburg Over 2.5 @2.11

1 unit bet on Orlando-Houston Over 3 @1.74

1 unit bet on Hoffenheim-Dortmund to Draw @3.78

1 unit bet on Nurnberg-Hannover to Draw @3.38

1 unit bet on Santa Clara-Rio Ave to Draw @3.43

Portugal Liga NOS Preview Aug 31-Sep 2

After three rounds in Portugal, Braga are top of the table and I like their chances to stay there as I think they win again this week.  Also a couple draws I like and three bets in total:

 

1 unit bet on Braga ML @1.77

1 unit bet on Belenenses-Setubal to Draw @3.29

1 unit bet on Aves-Maritimo to Draw @3.22

 

Chaves-Braga

Since Chaves returned to the top flight in Portugal a few years ago, Braga have beaten them three of the four times they have played.  Braga have also started this season off with two wins and a draw, scoring at least three times in each match.  Their one slip up was when they gave up three to Santa Clara to only get a draw.  Don’t think we’ll see that here, as Chaves do not get a ton of goals and have scored only once against Braga in the past four meetings.  I think Braga wins here 2-0

 

Belenenses-Vitoria Setubal

These two led the Portuguese League last season for most draws, Setubal with 11, while Belenenses had 10.  Last season, these two drew 1-1 when they met in Belenenses and this season, both are playing a lot of close games.  This should be a tight match and I think this will end 1-1

 

Aves-Maritimo

Aves have had a tough start to the season with only one point from the first three league games.   Maritimo have been playing some very tight games and have two wins that both came from very late winners.  Maritimo got a draw the last time they visited Aves and Aves also drew their only home game so far this season.  This should be a close game and I think it ends 1-1

 

 

And the rest of Round 4 in Portugal:

Guimaraes-Tondela: Lean Tondela +.75 @2.01

Guimaraes got a huge upset over Porto last weekend and will look to make it two in a row here against Tondela.  Guimaraes have already played two of the big three in Portugal and done well in those games, but they also lost to Feirense at home in their other game this season.  Tondela has been a tough team to beat so far, with two draws and a narrow 1-0 loss to Belenenses.  They also beat Guimaraes already in the League Cup as well as defeating them last season when they came to face them.  Guimaraes are doing well, but I think this will be close and I think Tondela gets a point in a 1-1 draw

Santa Clara-Boavista: Lean Draw @3.21

Boavista have had a decent start with a win and a draw so far and their only loss coming to Benfica.  Santa Clara have also started well in their first season in the top flight since 2003.  They are yet to win a game, but have been a very tough team to beat with two draws and only lost their opener due to a very late goal.  They should once again play tough here with this game at home, but Boavista is also a tough team and this should be a close game.  I think this one ends 1-1

Sporting Lisbon-Feirense: Lean Feirense +1.5 @1.91

Sporting are tied with three others with seven points from three games and are only behind Braga on goal difference, yet they have not been the most convincing team and have struggled to get wins against a couple lesser opponents.  Feirense have started the season very well and are level on seven points with Sporting.  They have already won their only away game of the season and I think they will give Sporting a very tough match here.  I think Sporting wins here 2-1

Rio Ave-Portimonense: Lean Rio Ave ML @2.16

Portimonense are bottom of the table after three rounds and they have given up two goals in each of their games.  Rio Ave have bounced back with a win and a draw after a disappointing loss to start the season and they have already beaten Portimonense in the League Cup a couple weeks ago.  They also won 2-0 last season when they hosted Portimonense and I think they get another 2-0 win in this game

Nacional-Benfica: Lean Over 2.75 @1.88

All three games Nacional have played this season have had at least three goals and the last four against Benfica have as well.  Nacional are in good goal scoring form and have found the back of the net in each of their league games so far and will have a good chance to score here against a Benfica team that will probably come in a bit fatigued after a big Champions League match midweek and a long trip back from Greece.  But Benfica have scored at least three times in each of the last four against Nacional and are off of a four goal game against PAOK this Wednesday.  I think Benfica wins here 3-1

FC Porto-Moreirense: Lean Over 3.25 @1.98

All three league games for Porto this season have had five goals and they have scored at least twice in each of them.  Unfortunately though, they have given up two goals in the last two games and allowed three last week in a surprising 3-2 loss to Guimaraes.   Moreirense have gotten off to a decent start winning one, drawing once, and only losing to Sporting in a tough game.  They have scored in all three matches so far and I like their chances of scoring against a struggling Porto defense  here.  But I think Porto will bounce back big time here after last weekend’s loss and I think Porto win 3-1

Portugal Liga NOS Preview August 24-27

Round 3 in Portugal begins on Friday and a huge match already with the Lisbon Derby taking place on Saturday.  But it is the Porto game I like this week and I am going to take the over in their match with Guimaraes:

 

1 unit bet on Porto-Guimaraes Over 3 @1.82

 

FC Porto-Guimaraes

Both of Porto’s games in the league have gone over 3 goals, as did the Super Cup match against Aves.  For Guimaraes, it has been a tough start to the season, as they have already faced Benfica away in the opener and now have another road match against one of the big clubs here.  They gave up three to Benfica a couple weeks ago, though they did score two of their own in that match.   When these two met at the Stadio do Dragao last season, the match ended 4-2 and I think we get a similar result here.  I like Porto to win this match 4-1

 

 

And the rest of round 3 in Portugal:

Maritimo-Chaves: Lean Maritimo ML @2.34

Maritimo always have a big home advantage and last season they only lost 3 league matches as hosts.  However, one of those losses came against Chaves, who are entering this match off of a 2-0 win in their last game.   Maritimo haven’t played very well so far this season, though they did grind out a 1-0 win in their home opener and with this game also at home, I think they can get the win here.  I think Maritimo wins again 1-0

Portimonense-Santa Clara: Lean Santa Clara +.5 @1.79

Portimonense now have two losses to start the season and zero goals scored.  Santa Clara, on the other hand, nearly upset Braga last week before ending with a 3-3 draw and nearly got a draw away to Maritimo in their opener.  Two good games for a team that was just promoted and I think they can get another result against a struggling Portimonense side.  I think Santa Clara may pull an upset here and I will predict them to win 1-0

Benfica-Sporting Lisbon: Lean Sporting +.5 @1.90

Both teams enter with two victories from the first two matches of the season, though Benfica have been far more impressive in their games.  Sporting have not played all that well, though they have been able to grind out a couple of wins.  It’s been a crazy offseason for Sporting and there have been a lot of changes to the squad, so normally I wouldn’t like their chances here.  But Benfica are in the middle of their Champions League qualification matches and have a huge trip to Greece coming up this week.  With so much money on the line with the Champions League, I don’t think Benfica will be able to fully focus here, despite this being a huge rivalry.  I think this match will end as a 1-1 draw

Feirense-Boavista: Lean Draw @3.18

Both have started well, with Feirense picking up two wins already without conceding a goal, while Boavista picked up a victory in their opener before falling to Benfica last weekend.   With both in good form this should be a close game and I think it will end 1-1

Vitoria Setubal-Nacional: Lean Setubal ML @1.96

A tough start to the season for Nacional with two losses in the first two games and it doesn’t get any easier here against a Setubal side who have started the campaign in strong form.  After winning their opener over Aves, they narrowly lost last weekend away to Sporting, but I think they bounce back here at home against a newly promoted team.  I like Setubal to win 2-1

Tondela-Rio Ave: Lean Draw @3.32

Tondela have played two very close matches so far, drawing last week 2-2 against Aves and narrowly losing the opener 1-0 to Belenenses.  Likewise, almost every time they have played Rio Ave in recent years, the match has been very close.   Five of the last six meetings between these two have either been draws or decided by a single goal and this one should also be close.  I think this game will be a 1-1 draw

Braga-Aves: Lean Over 2.75 @1.83

A 3-3 draw last week and a 4-2 win before that have been the results so far Braga.  Aves had a 2-2 draw in their last match, so their have been a ton of goals so far for these two teams.   Braga scored 74 goals last season, third in the league behind Porto and Benfica, so I think this game could be another high scoring one.  I think Braga wins 3-1

Moreirense-Belenenses: Lean Draw @3.32

Both teams here have had similar starts to the season, with a close loss to one of the big three clubs and a win in the other match.   Two of the last five meetings have been draws and I think this will be a close one as well.  I think this is a 1-1 draw

Portugal Liga NOS Preview August 17-20

The second week of the season kicks off on Friday with Aves hosting Tondela.  There were no draws in the opening week, which was a bit surprising in a league that typically sees a lot of them.  I think we will get a few this week and two matches that I like to end level:

 

1 unit bet on Aves-Tondela to Draw @3.15

1 unit bet on Nacional-Moreirense to Draw @3.30

 

Aves-Tondela

Tondela played a lot of low scoring matches last season, especially when they were on the road.  In away games, they allowed only 18 goals which was only more than Porto and Benfica.  However, they only scored 14, which was also one of lowest in the League.  Aves was also a team that did not score many goals last season, so this is likely to be a low scoring match with a good chance to end in a draw.  I think this match ends 1-1

Nacional da Madeira-Moreirense

Nacional are back in the top flight after spending a year in the Segunda Liga and they get their home opener here.  But they don’t have a very good record against Moreirense.   Nacional haven’t won a game head to head since 2004, though they typically play very close matches in Madeira, with the games either a draw or decided by a single goal.  This should be another close one and I think this match is going to end 0-0.

 

And the rest of the games for Round 2:

Chaves-Portimonense: Lean Over 2.5 @2.19

Last season, Portimonense had the most games go over 2.5 goals in the Portuguese League and they allowed the third most goals.  Chaves gave up the fifth most goals last season and their final five matches all went over 2.5.  Their poor defense continued in the opener as they conceded five to Porto.  The last time these two met, the match ended 2-1 to Chaves and I think we will see a similar score on Saturday

Boavista-Benfica: Lean Over 2.5 @2.03

Great result for Benfica this past Tuesday as they went to Istanbul and got a draw against Fenerbahce to advance in Champions League Qualifying.  But it puts them in a tough spot here, as they have another Champions League match now coming up this week against PAOK.  Hard to know what to expect here from Benfica with the Champions League the priority at the moment, but the past four times these teams have met, each has gone over 2.5 goals.  Benfica scored three in their opener and Boavista scored two in theirs, so a good chance we see goals in this one as well.  I like Benfica to win 2-1

Sporting Lisbon-Vitoria Setubal: Lean Setubal +1.5 @1.99

Setubal only finished in 14th last season but they have played very well against Sporting in recent years.  In the past five meetings, Sporting has only won by more than one goal once and though they won their opener 3-1 over Moreirense, I am still not convinced by this team that had a crazy off season with lots of turnover.  Setubal won their opener and I think they can get a result here as well.  I think this match ends 1-1

Rio Ave-Maritimo: Lean Rio Ave ML @2.10

Rio Ave were very good at home last season and had the best home record outside of the big four teams in Portugal.  They beat Maritimo at home last season and I think Rio Ave gets another win here.  I like Rio Ave to get a 1-0 win in this match

Belenenses-FC Porto: Lean Belenenses +1.5 @1.95

The past five times Belenenses have hosted Porto, they have only lost one time and that loss was by a single goal.  The last time Belenenses lost to Porto at home by more than one was 2010.  Belenenses played very well in their opener, getting a 1-0 win away at Tondela and while I do think Porto will get the win here, I think Belenenses will keep it close.  I like Porto to get a 2-1 win in this match

Santa Clara-Braga: Lean Braga -.75 @1.83

Disappointing week for Braga, as they were surprisingly knocked out of the Europa League, but I think they will be able to bounce back here against newly promoted Santa Clara.   Braga was one of the best away teams in the league last season and I think they will get a 2-0 win here.

Guimaraes-Feirense: Lean Guimaraes -.75 @1.82

Feirense lost 13 of their 17 away matches in the league last season and they have lost the two away matches they have played against Guimaraes.  I think Guimaraes get a 3-1 victory in this match

Portugal Liga NOS Preview August 10-13

Week One gets started in Portugal this Friday with Benfica hosting Guimaraes at the Estadio da Luz in Lisbon.  Two bets I like in this round of games:

 

1 unit bet on Maritimo ML @1.83

1 unit bet on Tondela-Belenenses to Draw @3.35

 

CS Maritimo-Santa Clara

Maritimo typically have one of the strongest home advantages in Portugal and even Porto, Benfica, and Sporting usually have trouble on their travels to Madeira.   Against newly promoted Santa Clara, I think Maritimo are likely to start the season with a victory and I think they get a 2-0 win in this match

 

Tondela-Belenenses

Three of the last six times these teams have played, the match has ended in a draw.  Belenenses played more draws last season than any other team in the Portuguese top flight, except for Setubal.  This should be a low scoring game and I think it will end 1-1

 

And the rest of the Liga NOS matches this week:

Benfica-Guimaraes: Lean Guimaraes +1.5 @2.11

Benfica got a huge win in their Champions League tie with Fenerbahce on Tuesday, but they face a very difficult trip to Istanbul this week for the second leg.   Qualifying for the Champions League is of much more importance than this opening round of league play and I think Benfica will probably rest some players in preparation for their upcoming trip to Turkey.  Benfica are also having some issues at forward, with last season’s leading scorer Jonas leaving the club to move to Saudi Arabia and new signing Nico Castillo suspended for this match.  It is extremely difficult to beat Benfica at home, so they should still get the win, but this match might be close.  I think Benfica wins here 2-1

Vitoria Setubal-Aves: Lean Over 2 @1.82

Setubal had the worst defense in the league last season, allowing 62 goals.  Aves has already played two competitive games this season and both went well over two goals.  They won 3-2 on penalties in the League Cup over Santa Clara and lost 3-1 to Porto in the Portuguese Super Cup.   I think there will be goals as well in this game and I like Aves to win 2-1

FC Porto-Chaves: Lean Porto -2 @1.93

Porto did not lose a league game at home last season and only failed to win by two in four of those games.  They beat Chaves  4-0 and 3-0 last season.  Once again, I expect a big Porto win here and I think they will get a 3-0 victory in this match

Feirense-Rio Ave: Lean Feirense PK @2.08

Head to head, the home team has won each match these two have played the past two seasons.  Rio Ave also performed terribly on the road at the end of last season, losing seven of the last eight.  I think Feirense wins 1-0 in this game.

Moreirense-Sporting Lisbon: Lean Moreirense +1.25 @1.89

After a very turbulent off season, Sporting may have a difficult start to the season with a new coach and many new players coming in.  Playing at home, I think Moreirense should be able to get a result and I think this match will end 1-1.

Braga-Nacional: Lean Nacional +1.5 @1.83

Braga just played in the Ukraine on Thursday in the Europa League and have a short turnaround for this match.  Braga had a great season in the last campaign and were fantastic at home, but this may be a tough spot after such a long trip.  Braga should get the win, but it may be a close match.  I like Braga to win 1-0

Portimonense-Boavista: Lean Over 2 @1.79

Portimonense matches averaged 3.3 goals last season, which was the highest in the league.   Only the big four teams of Benfica, Porto, Sporting, and Braga scored more goals, but only Estoril and Setubal conceded more goals than them.  This is a very low total for a team that plays many high scoring matches.  I think Portimonense wins this game 2-1