Sunday October 7

Six bets for Sunday, two in Italy, and one each in England, Spain, France, and Portugal:

 

5 unit bet on Fiorentina +.75 @1.83

1 unit bet on Man City +.25 @1.79

1 unit bet on Sampdoria +1 @1.85

1 unit bet on Marseille-Caen Over 2.75 @1.81

1 unit bet on Valencia-Barcelona Under 3 @1.98

1 unit bet on Benfica-Porto to Draw @3.24

 

Lazio-Fiorentina

Lazio have had a rough week, falling in the Rome Derby and then dropping their Europa League match on Thursday away to Eintracht Frankfurt.  And the schedule does not get any easier with a very tough match against Fiorentina and though this match is in Rome, I like the visitors in this one.  Three games in a week is tough for any team and when it is against three very strong opponents, it is very tiring and I do no think any team would be at full strength with such little rest and a good bit of travel between games.  And Fiorentina would be a difficult opponent at any time and with them well rested, I think they will be ready to get a result in this match.  Fiorentina are above Lazio in the Serie A table, they have scored more goals and have conceded fewer.  I like Fiorentina to come away with a 2-1 win in this match

Liverpool-Manchester City

Even though this match is at Anfield, I feel that Man City is in a better position for this match, as Liverpool have had a brutal run of fixtures in the past two weeks.  The Reds had to face Chelsea twice, once in the League Cup and once at Stamford Bridge in PL play.  They then had to make a long trip to Italy to face Napoli in Champions League play on Wednesday.  That is a lot of difficult games in a very short period of time.  In the same period, Man City cruised to victories over Oxford Utd in the Cup and Brighton in the PL and though they had to work hard to get a win over Hoffenheim in the CL, they have had an extra day of rest to recover.   Man City come into this game in better form and a bit better rested and that makes them the slight favorite in my opinion.  I think City wins this match 2-1

Atalanta-Sampdoria

I am surprised to see Atalanta as such a big favorite for this match, as they have not had very strong results this season and sit just above the relegation zone with just one win so far.  Sampdoria were a very poor away team last season, but they have taken four points from their first three road games this campaign, and more importantly, have allowed just one goal.  I like Sampdoria in this one and think they get a 2-1 win

Valencia-Barcelona

Barca had a huge win midweek in the Champions League and scored four times in London, but their La Liga form has been a different story.  Winless in their last three and they have scored just once in the past two games.  And Valencia is a very difficult team to beat and very tough to score on.  Only one of nine competitive matches this season have gone over 3 goals and head to head, just one of the past five meetings in Valencia have gone over 3.  With Valencia at home, I think they will give Barca a very tough match and I think this game ends 1-1

Marseille-Caen

Marseille have played 10 matches this season, eight in Ligue 1 and two more in the Europa League, and all 10 have had at least three goals.   I have bet the over in just about every game they have played this season and am going to continue to do so.  They are not only scoring a ton, but are giving up a bunch as well and I think that trend continues against Caen.  I think this match ends 2-2

Benfica-Porto

Both meetings two seasons ago were draws, as was the first meeting last season.  The second match last season was also nearly a draw, until a late Porto goal gave them the win.  This match is always close and very intense and this meeting will likely be the same.  I think this match ends 1-1

Saturday October 6

Four bets for Saturday:

5 unit bet on Leicester-Everton Over 2.5 @1.95

1 unit bet on Alaves +1.5 @1.93

1 unit bet on Mainz-Hertha Berlin to Draw @3.37

1 unit bet on Crystal Palace-Wolves to Draw @3.22 

 

Leicester City-Everton

Both sides have had five of seven matches this season go over 2.5 goals and head to head, three of the last four and seven of nine have had three or more goals.  Leicester have scored in each Premier League game this season and have at least two in five of seven.  The only two teams that they didn’t score twice on were Liverpool and Man Utd.  Everton have scored at least twice in four games this season and have only been held scoreless one time.  They have just one clean sheet though and Leicester have also conceded quite a few this season and have just two clean sheets. Both of these teams can score and I think both are likely to find the back of the net on Saturday.  With Leicester at home, I think they win and score multiple times in this match.  I like the Foxes to win 3-1

 

Alaves-Real Madrid

Winless in three straight and amazingly, without a goal scored during this period, this is a tough spot for Real Madrid.  In addition to their poor form, they had to make a long trip to Russia and I think there might be some tired legs after so much travel.  And Real face a tough opponent who have had a strong start to the season and are unbeaten at home so far this season.  This will be a tough game for Los Blancos and I think Alaves will keep this a close match.  I think this game ends 1-1

 

Mainz-Hertha Berlin

An interesting match up between a team that scores a lot of goals and one that scores very few.  Mainz have just four goals scored this season, but they have only allowed four as well and they are unbeaten in three matches at home.  Hertha have scored 12 times in Bundesliga play and are off of a big upset over Bayern last Friday.  That match was in Berlin though and they haven’t been quite as strong inn away games this season.  With Mainz at home this should be tight, close match and I think this game ends 1-1

 

Crystal Palace-Wolves

Two of the lower scoring teams in the Premier League meet here, with Palace having just 5 goals so far and Wolves with just 8.  But these two also concede very few and just about every game these two play is close.  Palace matches are averaging just 1.9 goals per match and Wolves average just 2.  With two teams that play lots of low scoring games, the chances of a draw are fairly high and I think this game ends level at 1-1

La Liga Preview Sep 28-Oct 1

A very surprising midweek round in Spain with both Barcelona and Real Madrid losing for the first time this season.  A huge match highlights this weekend’s round with Real and Atletico facing off in the Madrid Derby.  Four bets for this weekend:

 

1 unit bet on Alaves +.5 @1.79

1 unit bet on Villarreal-Valladolid Under 2.5 @1.93

1 unit bet on Real Sociedad-Valencia to Draw @3.58

1 unit bet on Celta Vigo-Getafe to Draw @3.35

 

Levante-Alaves

Just one loss on the season for Alaves and that was on the opening weekend and away to Barcelona.   Three wins and two draws since then and they are currently fourth in the table, trailing just Barca, Real, and Atletico.  Just one win this season for Levante and that came on the opening weekend as well, a surprising 3-0 victory over Betis.  But since then,  they have picked up just one more point and have lost four of five.  Levante’s 13 goals allowed is second most in La Liga and they face a very tough defense here as Alaves have allowed only 6 so far.  I like the way Alaves have played this season and I think they get a 2-1 win in this match

Villarreal-Valladolid

Villarreal’s matches are averaging just 1.3 goals per game, the lowest average in La Liga.  They have also allowed just three goals this season, also the lowest in the league.  Valladolid’s games are averaging just 1.8 goals per game and they have already had two 0-0 draws and two more games that ended 1-0.  I think this will be another low scoring game and I think Villarreal come away with a 1-0 victory

Real Sociedad-Valencia

Valencia have drawn five of six to start the season, while Real Sociedad have two draws in their first six.  All of their other matches have been very close as well, with each decided by a single goal.  The past five meetings head to head have all been close as well, with each decided by just one goal.  This should be a close one as well and I think this match ends 1-1

Celta Vigo-Getafe

An interesting match up here between two teams that have started the season well.  They have done it in different ways though, as Celta score a lot of goals, while Getafe have one of the toughest defenses in La Liga.  One thing they have in common though is that they both play a lot of close games, with Celta drawing three of their first six matches and Getafe drawing two of six.   They have also drawn two of the last four head to head.  Getafe’s tough defense means that most of their games are going to be close and low scoring and I think this match will end 1-1

 

 

And the rest of the action in La Liga:

Rayo Vallecano-Espanyol: Lean Espanyol PK @1.88

A bit of a strange start to the season for Rayo, as they have picked up a win away to Huesca and a draw away to Real Sociedad, but have lost both of their home matches by a combined score of  9-2.  Espanyol have had a great start to the season and are currently in sixth place in the table.  They have won all three at home and though they have struggled a bit on the road, they don’t allow many goals and always play teams tough.  I like how Espanyol have been playing and despite this being away from home, I think they get a 2-1 victory

Barcelona-Athletic Bilbao: Lean Over 3.5 @1.80

Barcelona’s matches are averaging 4 goals per match, which is highest in La Liga and they lead the league with 17 goals scored.  Bilbao matches are averaging 3.2 goals per game and they are yet to keep a clean sheet.  They have been scoring though and have only been held scoreless once so far.  I like both teams to score here and think Barca win 3-1

Eibar-Sevilla: Lean Over 2.5 @2.00

Sevilla now have the second most goals scored in La Liga with 13  and have 9 in their last two matches.  Eibar have not had many high scoring matches this season, but two of three at home have gone over 2.5 goals and they have scored in all three as hosts.  I think they have a good chance to score here as well, but stopping Sevilla will be quite a challenge.  I think Sevilla get a 2-1 victory in this match

Real Madrid-Atletico Madrid: Lean Draw @3.34

These two already played in the UEFA Super Cup and that match ended regulation at 2-2.  Last season, both meetings ended in draws and six of the last ten head to head have ended level.  Both are near the top of the table with Real in second and Atletico in third, but neither have really been at their best to start the season.  This is a tough match to call, especially with both playing Champions League games in a few days.  This should be close though and I think their is a good chance of a draw.  I am going to predict this to end 1-1

Huesca-Girona: Lean Girona +.25 @1.83

After a win and a draw to start the season, Huseca have now dropped four straight and play a Girona team here that has played quite well this season and are yet to lose an away match.  That includes picking up a 2-2 draw away to Barcelona, where Huesca lost 8-2 earlier this season.  Though Huesca have home advantage for this game, I feel Girona are the stronger side and I think they get a 2-0 win in this match

Real Betis-Leganes: Under 2.5 @1.85

Leganes upset Barcelona on Wednesday, which would be a big shock at any time, but is especially surprising given that this was their first win of the season.  They had four losses and a draw prior to that and still sit in the relegation zone.  Another tough match here as well, away to Betis, and though the hosts here haven’t had the best start, they are now unbeaten in the last five.  Three of those games were draws though and Betis are not scoring many goals.  They are not allowing much either though and their games so far are averaging just 1.5 goals per match.  This is likely a low scoring match as well and I think Betis get a 1-0 victory

La Liga Preview Sep 25-27

A full round of midweek La Liga action starts on Tuesday, headlined by an interesting match between Sevilla and Real Madrid.  I have three bets for these games:

 

5 unit bet on Sevilla-Real Madrid Over 3.25 @1.93

1 unit bet on Real Sociedad -.75 @1.78

1 unit bet on Alaves-Getafe to Draw @3.01

 

Sevilla-Real Madrid

Last season when these two teams met, the matches ended 3-2 and 5-0 and in the past ten meetings, each game has had at least three goals and eight have had at least four.  Both teams scored in seven of those ten meetings and so far this season, Real is second in La Liga in goals scored and Sevilla are tied for third.   This should be an entertaining match between two teams that can score a lot of goals.  I think Real win here 3-2

Real Sociedad-Rayo Vallecano

Real Sociedad have had a bit of a tough start to the season with just one match at home so far because of stadium renovations.  And that one home match was against Barcelona, a game where they played well but narrowly lost 2-1.  They are back at home for the second time here and play a Rayo side that is in the relegation zone and has a couple ugly losses to start the season.  They lost 5-1 to Alaves this past weekend and also fell 4-1 to Sevilla on the opening weekend.  Only Huesca and Levante have allowed more goals than Rayo and I think they will struggle away to Sociedad as well.  I like the home team to win here 3-1

Alaves-Getafe

Alaves are surprisingly in third place in the La Liga table, they have only lost once and that was away to Barcelona.   They have won three straight but face a tough challenge here against a Getafe team that is very solid defensively.  Getafe have only allowed goals this season to Real and Atletico and have won two of their other three games.  Both sides are playing well and with each conceding very few goals, this should be a close game.  I think this match ends 1-1

 

And the rest of the action in La Liga:

Espanyol-Eibar: Lean Espanyol ML @1.98

Espanyol have impressed this season and though they lost this past weekend to Real Madrid, they played very well and they look to be a very strong team.   They have played twice at home so far and won both times and I like them to get a third home win in this match.  Eibar are unbeaten in their last three, but two of those were at home and I do not think they are as strong when they play away.  I like Espanyol to win here 2-0

Atletico Madrid-Huesca: Lean Atletico -1.5 @1.89

Huesca have kept most of their matches close this season with the one exception an 8-2 thrashing away to Barcelona.  Atletico don’t score nearly as much as Barca, but an away match at the Wanda Metropolitano is almost as intimidating and Atleti should get a comfortable win.  I like Atletico to win 3-0

Athletic Bilbao-Villarreal: Lean Under 2.5 @1.81

Four of five have gone under 2.5 goals for Villarreal and they have scored just twice so far this season.  Bilbao are playing much higher scoring games, but the last three times they have hosted Villarreal, each game has had two or fewer goals scored.  I think Bilbao win here 1-0

Leganes-Barcelona: Lean Barca -1.5 @1.83

Leganes are rock bottom of the La Liga table with just one point from their first five matches and they have not fared well when Barcelona has come to visit them.  Since being promoted a couple season ago, they have lost all four times they played Barca and as hosts they have lost 3-0 and 5-1.  Barcelona top the table and have the most La Liga goals this season and I like them to win 3-0

Valencia-Celta Vigo: Lean Celta +.75 @1.96

Valencia have had a frustrating start to the season and while they have lost just once in La Liga play, they also have not yet won a game.  They have drawn four times and face a Celta team that is not easy to beat.  Celta are fourth in the table and have just one loss so far this season.  Celta are playing well and scoring a lot of goals and I like their chances of at least getting a draw here.  I think this match ends as a 1-1 draw

Valladolid-Levante: Lean Levante +.5 @1.85

Levante got a big win in their first match and looked like they might be ready for a strong season, but they have just a single point since then and were destroyed this past weekend 6-2 against Sevilla.  They have faced a tough schedule though, with most of their opponents in the top half of the table and they get a more favorable match up here against a team that has not won a match this season.  Valladolid do have three draws so far, but they do not score many goals which means that Levante should come away with at least a point.  I think this match ends 0-0

Girona-Real Betis: Lean Girona PK @1.86

Girona have moved into sixth place and have lost just once this season.  They had two wins in a row over Celta and Villarreal and followed that up with an impressive draw away to Barcelona.  This team is playing well and are scoring a lot of goals.  Betis have only lost once this season, but they have also only won once.  They are getting a lot of draws, but haven’t really impressed this season.  In addition, they are in the Europa League and playing extra matches and just traveled to Greece last Thursday.  Having to play another midweek match means a lot of game time with little rest and I think a trip to Girona will be difficult for this team I like Girona to win this match 2-1

Sunday September 23

Bets for Sunday:

1 unit bet on West Ham-Chelsea Over 2.75 @1.76

1 unit bet on Arsenal-Everton Over 3.25 @1.84

1 unit bet on Rennes-PSG Over 3 @1.91

1 unit bet on Lyon-Marseille Over 3 @1.97

1 unit bet on Eintracht-RB Leipzig Over 2.75 @1.76

1 unit bet on LA Galaxy-Seattle Sounders Over 3 @1.77

1 unit bet on Villarreal-Valencia Under 2.5 @1.93

1 unit bet on Real Betis-Athletic Bilbao Under 2.5 @1.88

1 unit bet on Benfica -2 @1.79

1 unit bet on Tondela-Moreirense to Draw @3.39

1 unit bet on Cruzeiro-Santos to Draw @3.02

1 unit bet on Atletico PR -.75 @1.83

Saturday September 22

Having problems with internet, so unable to do any write ups, but bets for Saturday are:

 

1 unit bet on Fulham-Watford Over 2.75 @1.99

1 unit bet on Real Madrid-Espanyol Under 3.5 @1.88

1 unit bet on Wolfsburg-Freiburg Over 2.5 @2.11

1 unit bet on Orlando-Houston Over 3 @1.74

1 unit bet on Hoffenheim-Dortmund to Draw @3.78

1 unit bet on Nurnberg-Hannover to Draw @3.38

1 unit bet on Santa Clara-Rio Ave to Draw @3.43

La Liga Preview September 14-17

La Liga returns to action and some interesting games this weekend, with the first ever home game in La Liga for Huesca, while Barcelona have to travel to the dreaded Anoeta to face Real Sociedad.  Two bets in La Liga this weekend for me:

 

1 unit bet on Alaves +.25 @2.00

1 unit bet on Celta Vigo +.25 @1.85

 

Valladolid-Alaves

Alaves have made a nice start to this La Liga season, with a win, a draw, and only one defeat away to Barcelona.  And even in that loss, they played very tough against Barca and it took some special goals from Messi to finally defeat them.  Valladolid are yet to score this season and though they have gotten two 0-0 draws, I think Alaves will be the stronger team here.  I like Alaves to get a 2-0 win

 

Girona-Celta Vigo

Celta have had an impressive start to the season and are only below Barcelona and Real Madrid in the table.  They haven’t had an easy schedule either, beating Atletico in their last match and they also got results against Levante and Espanyol, who have also started well this season.  Girona haven’t had a bad start to the season, but they have only two goals scored so far and I think it will be hard for them to beat a Celta team that has scored in all three games so far, with two goals against Atleti and Levante.  I like Celta to get a 2-1 win here

 

 

And the rest of the La Liga matches for this week:

Huesca-Rayo Vallecano: Lean Huesca ML @2.29

The first ever home game in La Liga and it should be a big occasion for this team.   Huesca did well in their first two matches, getting a win in their opener at Eibar and a draw away to Bilbao.  They were then thumped 8-2 at the Camp Nou, but I’m not reading too much into that game.  Lots of teams take beatings away to Barca, and the other two matches were impressive results away in tough environments.  Huesca should do well at home and they have done well against Rayo in recent meetings.  When hosting Rayo the past two seasons in the Segunda Liga, Huesca has won 2-1 and 2-0.   I think Huesca get a 2-1 win in this match

Atletico Madrid-Eibar: Lean Atletico -1.25 @1.93

Since Eibar came up to La Liga in 2014, they have never beaten Atletico.  The best they have done is to get two draws, while Atleti has won  the other eight meetings.  Not the best start to the season for either team, but Atletico look to be the much stronger side and with this match in Madrid, they should win comfortably.  I like Atletico to win 3-0

Real Sociedad-Barcelona: Lean Real Sociedad +1.5 @1.79

The Curse of Anoeta.  Prior to last season, Barcelona had lost five and drawn three when playing away to Real Sociedad in La Liga matches.  Even though they won last season, Barca went down two goals early and had to storm back in the second half to get the win.  It is a bit of a tough spot for the visitors as well, with many in the squad just getting back from international duty.  And this is the home opener for Sociedad and a big match as it is the first match in Anoeta after renovation.  This has to be Barcelona’s least favorite road trip and I think Real Sociedad will at least get a draw here.  I like this match to end 1-1

Valencia-Real Betis: Lean Betis +.75 @1.93

Not the best start for either of these teams, with Valencia picking up just two points so far and Betis winning just one of the first three.   Betis did pick up a big win over archrival Sevilla in their last game and I think that will get their season going.  This is a strong Betis team and I think that Valencia is way too big of a favorite in this match.  Betis did not do well last season against Valencia, losing both meetings, but I think they will have enough to get a result here.  I think this match ends 1-1

Athletic Bilbao-Real Madrid: Lean Under 3.25 @1.83

Whenever Real travel to Bilbao, it is typically a low scoring game and the last time a meeting between these teams in Bilbao had more than three goals was 2009.   Last season, Bilbao held them scoreless in a 0-0 draw and while I do think Real get a win here this season, I don’t think they will score much.  I like Real to win 2-0

Leganes-Villarreal: Lean Leganes PK @2.19

A bit of a tough game to call, as both have started the season poorly.  Both have two losses and a draw after three games and both are currently in the relegation zone.  Leganes have been giving up too many goals, but Villarreal has only scored once this season.  Leganes are unbeaten at home against Villarreal since they were promoted a few seasons ago though.  I think Leganes get a 1-0 win in this match

Espanyol-Levante: Lean Espanyol ML @1.79

Both sides have had nice starts to the season and both are in the top seven in the table after three matches.  Espanyol has had a bit of an unfavorable schedule to start with just one home match so far, but they were very impressive in that game, soundly beating Valencia 2-0.  With this match also at home, I think they get another win.  I like Espanyol to win 2-1

Sevilla-Getafe: Lean Under 2.5 @1.93

Getafe have kept clean sheets in two of their three matches so far and have only conceded goals to Real Madrid in their opening match.  Not any shame in allowing goals to Real and they only gave up two to a team that has scored four times in their other two games.  Sevilla has had a bit of a tough start to the season, with Europa League qualifying going on right at the start of the La Liga season.  They have had two of three go under 2.5 goals and while they are very strong at home, Getafe should give them a tough match.  I think Sevilla gets a 1-0 victory here

La Liga Preview Aug 31-Sep 2

Should be an exciting round in La Liga with a bunch of rivalry matches.  The Seville rivals meet on Sunday, an all Basque meeting with Eibar and Real Sociedad on Friday, and Real hosting fellow Madrid club Leganes on Saturday.  Three bets for this round:

 

1 unit bet on Atletico Madrid ML @1.81

1 unit bet on Eibar-Real Sociedad to Draw @3.34

1 unit bet on Alaves-Espanyol to Draw @3.16

 

 

Celta Vigo-Atletico Madrid

Celta got a nice win in the last round, but they have not fared well against Atletico in recent years and have lost the last five head to head.  Even with Celta at home for this one, Atleti have won on their last two trips to Vigo.  Atletico had to grind out a victory last week against Rayo, but they showed how good they could be against Real Madrid a few weeks ago in the UEFA Super Cup and I think they will be too much for a Celta team that is going through a coaching transition.  I like Atletico to win 2-0

 

Eibar-Real Sociedad

It has not been a good start to the season for Eibar, losing their first two, including a home loss to newly promoted Huesca.  But this is a local rivalry and I expect Eibar to perform better with this game at home.  The meetings between these two are almost always close, with only two of the eight meetings since Eibar were promoted to La Liga decided by more than a goal.  Last season, the match ended 0-0 when Sociedad came to Eibar and I think we will see another draw on Friday.  I think this match ends 1-1

 

Alaves-Espanyol

Espanyol have had a nice start to the season and had a very impressive win last weekend against Valencia.  I think they will continue to do well in La Liga this season, but Alaves have also done well so far.  They are yet to win a game but they gave Barca a very tough time in the opener before fading late on and then held a talented Betis team to a 0-0 draw last week.  I see a similar match here with Alaves making things difficult for Espanyol and this should be a close one.  Just about every match between these teams is low scoring and close and I think this ends in a 1-1 draw

 

 

And the rest of the action in La Liga:

Getafe-Real Valladolid: Lean Getafe ML @1.92

Valladolid have shown in their first two games that they will be a tough team to beat.  They drew 0-0 with Girona in the opener, before narrowly losing to Barca 1-0, though the terrible conditions of the Valladolid pitch likely had something to do with that result.  On the road for this one so can’t count on the pitch here and Getafe is a tough team at home.  They beat Eibar 2-0 in their home opener last week and they were very tough to beat at home last season.  Valladolid will keep this close, but I think Getafe come away with a 1-0 win

Villarreal-Girona: Lean Girona +1 @1.93

Villarreal haven’t really gotten going yet this season with a 0-0 draw away to Sevilla in their opener followed by a 2-1 home loss to Real Sociedad.  Girona also only have a point so far, but they have shown they will be a tough team to beat, as they took the lead last week against Real Madrid before falling late in the match.  I think Girona get a point here against Villarreal and I like this to end 1-1

Real Madrid-Leganes: Lean Leganes +2.5 @1.97 

Leganes always seem to keep matches with Real fairly close and in the six matches they have played since Leganes were promoted two years ago, Real have only won once by more than two goals.  Leganes have even beaten Real once in those games and they almost always at least get a goal.  Real are the big favorite here, but I think Leganes will at least keep this close and cover a 2.5 goal spread.  I think this ends 3-1 for Real

Levante-Valencia: Lean Levante +.5 @1.81

A similar start to the season for both of these sides, a nice result in the opening weekend, a 1-1 draw with Atleti for Valencia and a 3-0 win over Betis for Levante.  But the second round was a huge disappointment for both with  Levante losing 2-1 at home to Celta and Valencia falling 2-0 to Espanyol.  Head to head, this fixture has been dominated by the home team with seven of the last eight won by the host and the other a draw.   I like that trend to continue here and I think with Levante at home, they at least get a draw.  I think this game ends 1-1

Barcelona-Huesca: Lean Barca -3 @1.95

Huesca have had a nice start to their first ever season in La Liga with a win over Eibar and a draw at Athletic Bilbao.  It is good to see such a small club in the top flight and I am hoping they do well this season, but I think that a trip to the Camp Nou will be a bit too much for them.  I expect Huesca to fight hard and very organized, but I think they will eventually fade late on.  Alaves gave Barca a tough time in the home opener, but Messi eventually pulled through with some magical goals.  Too much talent for the home team here and I think Barca get a 4-0 win

Real Betis-Sevilla: Lean Draw @3.87

A big rivalry game here, though it is a shame it is taking place so early before either have really gotten going.  Sevilla have been distracted by Europa League qualifying and just got through to the Group Stage on Thursday.  Meanwhile, Betis have had a very disappointing start for a team that has very high hopes.  Sevilla have started the season better, but with Betis at home, I think this will be an even match.   I think this game ends 2-2

La Liga Preview August 24-27

The big clubs like Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Sevilla top the table after the first round, but Levante are up there with them after their surprising win at Betis and I like them to win again this weekend, while I like a couple draws as well this round.  Three bets for La Liga:

 

1 unit bet on Levante PK @1.79

1 unit bet on Espanyol-Valencia to Draw @3.35

1 unit bet on Alaves-Real Betis to Draw @3.36

 

Levante-Celta Vigo

Interesting stat about Levante, since Paco Lopez took over last season, Levante have the best record in La Liga.  Great start to this campaign as well, beating Betis 3-0 in Seville and I like their chances in their home opener.  Celta were one of the worst La Liga away teams last season, losing 12 of their 19 league road games and they are still adjusting to a new coach.  I like Levante to win here 2-0

 

Espanyol-Valencia

Espanyol got a 1-1 draw away to Celta Vigo in their opener and they were the better team for much of that match.  They also had a very good preseason, winning all of their friendly matches.   Valencia also got a 1-1 draw in their first game, coming from behind to level things against a very strong Atletico Madrid side.  I think Valencia is the better team in this match up, but with Espanyol at home and in good form to start the season, I think this should be very close.  I think we see a 1-1 draw here

 

Alaves-Real Betis

Alaves gave Barcelona a very tough match last weekend and though they ended up losing 3-0, they held Barca scoreless until midway through the second half.  Now they get to play at home and more importantly, they don’t have to stop anyone like Messi, so I am expecting a good performance here.  Betis are a strong team and finished fifth last season, but they did not look good against Levante in their opener.  I think Betis are the better team, but with Alaves at home, I think that evens things out.  I like this match to end 1-1

 

 

And the rest of the Week 2 action in La Liga:

Getafe-Eibar: Lean Getafe ML @2.00

Eibar had a disappointing loss at home to newly promoted Huesca and that is a worrying sign for them, as they were very tough to beat at home for much of last season.  They were not nearly as strong in away games and Getafe were one of the toughest teams to score against in La Liga.  Only Atletico and Barca allowed fewer goals than Getafe last season and I think they shut Eibar down here.  I like Getafe to win 1-0

Leganes-Real Sociedad: Lean Leganes +.25 @1.86

Leganes lost their opener last week, while Real Sociedad got a nice win over Villarreal, but I think we may get the opposite here.  Leganes were quite difficult to beat at home last season, while Sociedad were terrible on the road.  They lost 11 of 19 away games in La Liga, including a 1-0 loss to Leganes.  I think gets another 1-0 win in this match

Atletico Madrid-Rayo Vallecano: Lean Atletico -2 @1.90

Atletico got a 1-1 draw away to Valencia in a very difficult opener and it was a tough week all around after they also played in the UEFA Super Cup in Estonia where they beat Real Madrid.  After a week to rest and with the home opener here, I am expecting them to roll, especially against a Rayo team that lost their opener 4-1 at home to Sevilla.  I like Atletico to win 3-0

Real Valladolid-Barcelona: Lean Under 3 @1.96

Barcelona won their opener 3-0 last week, but Alaves played tough for most of that match and it took some magic from Messi to break through and get the win.  They face an over matched Valladolid side here, but with this being their home opener, I expect them to be motivated and ready to fight hard against such a big name opponent.  Valladolid got a 0-0 draw with Girona in their opener, while they also had two 0-0 draws in preseason friendlies and two more ended 1-0.  Barca win this game, but it will be a struggle and I think it ends 2-0

Sevilla-Villarreal: Lean Villarreal +.75 @1.91

Sevilla with a big 4-1 win in their opener, but they are in the middle of their Europa League qualifying campaign and just played Thursday in the Czech Republic.  A long trip back and short rest here and Villarreal are a tough team to beat.  Sevilla are very strong at home, but I think Villarreal get a point from this game and I think this match ends 1-1

Girona-Real Madrid: Lean Girona +1.5 @1.91

Girona famously got a 2-1 win over Real last season and were very strong at home for much of last season.  Girona are probably getting Real at the right time this season as well, as Los Blancos are still adjusting to a new coach and to life without Ronaldo in the line up.  Don’t think Girona can win again over Real, but I think they keep it close.  I like Real 2-1 in this match

Athletic Bilbao-Huesca: Lean Athletic Bilbao -.75 @1.85

Huesca got their first ever La Liga campaign off on the right foot with a 2-1 win over Eibar.  Another trip to the Basque country here, but don’t think they get the same result.  Athletic Bilbao also started the season off with a 2-1 win over Leganes and they are a very tough team to beat at home.  I like Athletic Bilbao to win here 2-0

La Liga Opening Round/UEFA Super Cup

The UEFA Super Cup takes place on Wednesday with two Spanish teams taking part as Real Madrid face city rivals Atletico, and then La Liga kicks off on Friday with Girona hosting newly promoted Valladolid in the opener.  A few bets I like in this first round:

 

1 unit bet on Real-Atletico to Draw @3.39

1 unit bet on Real Betis ML @1.76

1 unit bet on Real Madrid-Getafe Over 3 @1.74

1 unit bet on Valencia-Atletico Madrid to Draw @3.16

 

Real Madrid-Atletico Madrid

The Madrid rivals go all the way to Tallinn, Estonia to play in the Super Cup, but I think it is likely that we see a similar result to when these two face each other in the Spanish Capital.   Five of the last ten meetings between these teams have ended level in regulation time and now without Ronaldo for Real, these matches will probably be even tighter.  I think we see a 1-1 draw in this match

Real Betis-Levante

Betis had a very strong season in the last campaign, finishing fifth and clinching a Europa League place.  They have made some nice additions to the squad for this season and once again look to be one of the top teams in the league.   They were especially good at home and won four of their last five matches to end the season.  Levante, on the other hand, finished at the other end of the table and while they did end the season in good form, they have lost five straight to Betis.  I think Betis get a 3-1 win in this match.

Real Madrid-Getafe

The past ten meetings meetings between these teams have all had at least three goals and the last seven at the Santiago Bernabeu have all had at least four and Real have scored at least three times in each of those games.  But Getafe always seems to pick up a goal or two when they face Real as well, so that makes the over an even more attractive bet.  I like Real to get a 3-1 win in this match.

Valencia-Atletico Madrid

A very tough opening week for Atletico having to travel to Valencia after also playing in the Super Cup.  Valencia finished in fourth last season and had the fourth best defense, allowing just 38 goals.  But Atletico had the best defense in La Liga last season, conceding just 22 times, so goals may be hard to come by in this match.  Last year, the game ended scoreless when they played in the Mestalla and I think we will see a similar result on Monday.  I think this match ends 1-1

 

And the rest of the La Liga matches on the opening week:

Girona-Real Valladolid: Lean Girona ML @1.81

Last season was Girona’s first time in the top flight, but they had an impressive season finishing in tenth place.  They faded at the end of the season, but early on they were very strong at home and I think they should beat newly promoted Valladolid.  I like Girona to win 2-0

Celta Vigo-Espanyol: Lean Espanyol +.5 @2.01

Espanyol finished last season with three straight victories and their good form has carried over into preseason with them winning all six of the friendlies they played.  Celta, on the other hand, did not win any of their preseason friendlies, losing two and drawing three and they ended La Liga play in poor form, winning just once in their last seven matches.  They also have not beaten Espanyol the last three times these teams have met and I expect the visitors to at least get a draw in this one.  I think there is a good chance Espanyol may pull off the upset and I like them to win 2-1

Villarreal-Real Sociedad: Lean Villarreal ML @2.06

Real Sociedad did not play well on the road last season, losing 11 of their 19 away games in La Liga play.  They lost the last three away games of the season and were also defeated the last time they came to Villarreal.  I think Villarreal gets a 2-1 win in this match

Barcelona-Alaves: Lean Alaves +2.5 @2.01

Alaves have typically played Barcelona tough since they returned to La Liga in 2016 and even beat them 2-1 that year.  Since that match, Barca have beaten Alaves four straight times, but only one of those was by more than two goals.  Alaves may be getting Barca at the right time too, with the defending champs just getting many of their stars back from the World Cup break.  Barca did not look great in the Super Cup last weekend and I think this match could be closer than expected.  I like Barcelona to win 2-0

Eibar-Huesca: Lean Eibar -.75 @1.93

Eibar finished last season in the top half of the table and they have a big home field advantage at the Ipurua Stadium .  Huesca are newly promoted and this is a tough opening fixture for them.  I think Eibar wins here 2-0

Rayo Vallecano-Sevilla: Lean Rayo +.5 @1.78

While this is the first competitive match for many teams in La Liga, Sevilla have already had a busy start, with participation in the Spanish Super Cup and the Europa League.  Sevilla have to make a long trip to Lithuania for a Europa League game on Thursday and then it is a short turnaround for this match.  This is Rayo’s first match back in La Liga and with it being played at home, I think they can at least get a draw against a tired Sevilla side.  I think this match ends 1-1

Athletic Bilbao-Leganes: Lean Athletic Bilbao ML @1.81

Athletic did not have a very successful season last term, finishing in 16th place, but Bilbao is always a difficult place tho play and they did finish above 17th placed Leganes.   The visitors lost 13 of 19 away matches last season, including a 2-0 defeat in Bilbao.  I think Athletic get another 2-0 victory in this match